NFL Draft Preparation – How Tebow has helped the misfits

Mid September The Football Educator wrote “Scouting NFL Talent – The Quarterback” in which we broke down the critical factors and position specifics used to evaluate arguably the single most important position on the football field.  NFL teams that have a decided difference maker at the position can tell you just how fortunate they are, those that don’t will most certainly be looking for one in this year’s college draft.

Redepemption

The makeup and configuration of a club’s signal caller has become a bit muddied since the emergence of Tim Tebow’s magical mystery tour in Denver.  Whether you’re a Tebow fan or not, you can’t help but marvel at the accomplishments he’s created this season.  It would be hypocritical of both the faithful and detractors to say that he fits the prototype for the position.  He does not, that’s what created the “firestorm” controversy.  General Manager’s and scouts are paid to look at all aspects of potential and make calculated “guesses” as to whether it can be fulfilled.

In a League dominated by the passing game, Tebow’s sub .500 completion percentage, 4.9 net yards per attempt and 10.9 Sack % (along with 6 Int’s & 13 Fums)  don’t sit well with those entrusted with the future of a club.  But football fans and media can’t argue the fact that the Denver Broncos are one of eight teams left of the thirty-two that set out with the same goal back in August.  It’s just theirs has gone a less than conventional route.

Review

Reread the “Scouting NFL Talent – The Quarterback” piece and then also consider the following.  As pundits begin to decipher and dissect the entering quarterback class, keep in mind these facts;

• On average there are 15 QB’s drafted each year.
• Historically only 5 are selected prior to pick #81.
• 46% of two deep rosters have QB’s drafted in the 1^st & 2^nd rounds.
• After pick #50, only about 5% will make 56 starts over their first 5 seasons (thank you Mr. Brady).
• Next to Safety, QB is the least predictive position with relevance to NFL Combine Testing Results.
• QB’s that Exceed Peer Average in 3 of 7 events have the highest likelihood of starting at the next level.

Though no one event correlates enough to prove mandatory, three stand out; short shuttle, 3-Cone & vertical jump.  Otherwise, the NFL Combine is useless in predicting future success.

Rewind

Tim Tebow’s lack of passing accuracy has led the Broncos straight to the divisional playoffs, while Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers and Matt Cassel all sit at home and watch.  Ask how far the NY Jets, St Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars got with their 1^st round selections this year?

You might want to supplement this post with “Is IT even on the football player evaluation form”.   Which brings TFE to the point, there is no clear cut picture of what an NFL QB should look like.  Today’s prototype mega-giants stand around 6’5”, weigh 225-240 pounds and have howitzers connected to their shoulders.  Joe Montana was 6’2” 197 lbs and Drew Brees entered the League at 6’0” 218 lbs.  Sometimes you have to scout with your gut.

Rethink

This season another highly regarded college QB prepares for the NFL draft and is seen as not fitting the mold (whatever that is now).  Pundits have already criticized his size, the offense, the level of competition, his throwing mechanics.  Mock drafts have him between the 5^th and 7^th rounds, some teams not even wanting to consider until free agency.  Below is the seasonal production of consensus #1 Andrew Luck and the misfit “smurf”.  Can you tell which is Luck’s and which is Kellen Moore’s of Boise State?

 Replay

To write off Moore as this year’s Tebow is ignoring past and current history.  Those same doubters are scratching their heads as to why their playoff pool is suddenly “kaput”.  There is no clear cut picture and you can’t coach IT.  Can your team afford to doubt another Bronco?  Time for everyone to take a closer look at Kellen Moore – his numbers are first on the above chart and he just wins.