Jets, Sanchez, Ryan – Wrong mix for NFL QB development?

The New York Jets 2012 season came to a head Monday Night when starting QB Mark Sanchez threw 4 interceptions in a 14-10 loss to Tennessee.  The Jets were eliminated from playoff contention and Rex Ryan subsequently named Greg McElroy as the starter this week for the final home game versus San Diego.  With backup QB Tim Tebow healed from a rib injury, many questioned why Ryan bypassed the popular but controversial Tebow in favor of McElroy.

Cloudy picture

It remains unclear whether Ryan and or Sanchez will return for the 2013.  Sanchez has struggled all season ranking 33^rd in QB rating, 32^nd in completion %, tied for 2^nd in Interceptions (3^rd INT %), 25^th in TD passes (29^th TD %), 24^th in total passing yards, tied for 7^th in sacks, and so it goes. . .

Ryan and GM Mike Tannenbaum built the Jets on the premise of a dominant running game and strong defense.  The hope was Sanchez would continue to develop while being propped up by this support system.  But Sanchez is regressing, along with a running game & defense that haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain.

Rules of thumb

Sanchez violated the 36/60 rule when he was drafted 5^th overall in 2009.  His college career as a starter was really only one season (2008) and he played in just 21 games over two seasons for the Trojans.  Yet Sanchez has started all but one game in his NFL career (61/61), reaching the 56 over 5 measure for avoiding a bust.  Still that’s the description being thrown around.

Many QB’s have come out of college ballyhooed and predicted to take the League by storm.  I wanted to see if I could find ANYTHING supporting a rookie starter needing patience and a strong support system (both players & coaches) already in place.

Failure & Success

The following two tables are by no means scientific.  I went back to ’92 and extracted highly rated QB’s that failed to reach 56/5, then some that went on to have successful 5+ seasons as starters.  The head coach & offensive coordinator that drafted them, along with the number of years that head coach was ranked in the Top 10 in passing attempts & passing yards prior to drafting the QB (either as HC or as an OC) are included.  Asterisk denotes “rookie head coach”, D denotes “defensive background”.  In the case where a rookie defensive minded head coach (*D) drafted the player, I went to the offensive coordinator’s past experience.

Throw out physical attributes, college offenses, character issues and other contributing factors to the overall picture, and what do you see and or deduce?